Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 3.122336 3.747807 4.447968 5.287122 6.262678 7.358096 8.678145
2025-06-01 2.210540 2.998908 3.976521 5.266799 6.912411 8.927324 11.565617
2025-06-08 1.673560 2.520750 3.665805 5.301718 7.549248 10.494784 14.606271
2025-06-15 1.299764 2.148778 3.386483 5.279630 8.049139 11.889336 17.536910
2025-06-22 0.978763 1.768197 3.003945 5.017111 8.135079 12.682112 19.684540
2025-06-29 0.791696 1.549058 2.812034 4.986204 8.523108 13.906964 22.525317
2025-07-06 0.648317 1.368281 2.642311 4.950231 8.876784 15.089162 25.383270
2025-07-13 0.586574 1.320217 2.684906 5.263946 9.816084 17.247734 29.909493
2025-07-20 0.515666 1.237786 2.649186 5.429455 10.514844 19.071098 34.040721
2025-07-27 0.467843 1.191506 2.671188 5.697028 11.410544 21.283601 38.964612
2025-08-03 0.399989 1.086118 2.558576 5.691486 11.808295 22.676328 42.614866
2025-08-10 0.325897 0.948278 2.354734 5.475208 11.784410 23.322118 45.022079
2025-08-17 0.259890 0.814544 2.138690 5.208658 11.645309 23.770905 47.164087
2025-08-24 0.221499 0.741913 2.046140 5.188487 11.987300 25.125930 51.029463
2025-08-31 0.192211 0.686292 1.983116 5.222908 12.441326 26.724406 55.452927
2025-09-07 0.164593 0.627548 1.901153 5.201096 12.771995 28.107376 59.566050
2025-09-14 0.131413 0.540883 1.730060 4.942026 12.558850 28.397562 61.610007
2025-09-21 0.112498 0.494774 1.657730 4.911525 12.844882 29.706882 65.714778
2025-09-28 0.096291 0.452640 1.587861 4.876026 13.113336 30.996669 69.861896
2025-10-05 0.092263 0.454663 1.647160 5.185611 14.217648 34.114672 77.879632
2025-10-12 0.084452 0.439465 1.651757 5.348954 14.988096 36.573833 84.697475
2025-10-19 0.079768 0.435643 1.691163 5.613039 16.027671 39.683210 93.037194
2025-10-26 0.069591 0.404655 1.637379 5.607569 16.399144 41.353556 98.464697